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 Five Bold Predictions

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PostSubject: Five Bold Predictions   Wed May 11, 2011 8:29 pm

First topic message reminder :

1. They Will Pick Up Another WR Through Free Agency
Bob Levey/Getty Images
Many agree that the Chiefs' biggest weakness coming into this offseason was at wide receiver.

After last month's draft, KC was able to net talented first-round pick Jonathan Baldwin to pair with Pro Bowl WR Dwayne Bowe.

I expect Chiefs GM Scott Pioli to dip into the free-agency pool for a WR and pick up a solid wideout such as fifth-year veteran Steve Smith from the Giants.


2. They Will Pick Up a Starting RT Through Free Agency
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After watching the Chiefs last season, it was clear that their RT position needed to be upgraded for the '11 season.

Current starter Barry Richardson was inconsistent and he even got into a shouting match with the Chiefs coaching staff for taking him out of the Dec. 5 game vs. Denver last season.

Veteran right tackle Jammal Brown will be a free agent when the lockout resumes, and I would not be surprised to see Kansas City jump all over him.

Nabbing Brown would give the Chiefs a solid right side of their offensive line, as he would be paired with veteran RG Ryan Lilja.


3. They Will Trade Brodie Croyle for Draft Pick(s)
Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Current Chiefs backup Brodie Croyle likely saw his replacement selected in the fifth round of April's draft in former Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi.

Croyle has never won a game as a starter for KC, and has been given many opportunities to succeed for this team, and has yet to get it done.

Stanzi is a more viable option, as he has NFL size at 6'4", 225 lbs., and is more talented than Croyle overall.

I look for Pioli to get a possible fourth- or fifth-round pick out of the former Alabama star.


4. Matt Cassel Will Continue To Mature as a QB
Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
Matt Cassel will be entering his third season as the starting signal-caller for KC this fall.

He has had an up-and-down two seasons so far in Kansas City, while working with three different offensive coordinators in the process.

Last year, we saw Cassel's leadership skills on display throughout the season, and with new QB coach Jim Zorn at the helm this year, the former USC backup should only get better as an NFL quarterback this offseason and beyond.


5. Another Chief Will Be Thrown into Todd Haley's Doghouse
Matt Sullivan/Getty Images
During his first two seasons as Chiefs head coach, Todd Haley has put several players in his so-called "doghouse" at times.

LB Derrick Johnson, WR Dwayne Bowe and RB Jamaal Charles have all been benched by Haley, only to see all three of them have the best season of their respective careers in 2010.

One name that many might think will be in his doghouse this offseason is rookie Jonathan Baldwin, who criticized his coaching staff while at the University of Pittsburgh last season.

Time will tell, but there is a good chance someone will feel the heat from Haley sometime this offseason.

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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Mon May 30, 2011 8:09 am

I forgot to mention he doesn't like facts either.
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Mon May 30, 2011 5:15 pm

[quote="Ian316"]Yeah exactly look at what he had around hinm as receivers. Bowe and..........nothing....yet 3000 plus and a great TD to int ratio. Cassel has a lot better chance to keep this team in check then anybody we bring in this year or Stanzi. To want him to tear his ACL is to want this team to go 0-16.....way to be a good fan.....[/ I am a realist and dont believe every single thing the Chiefs do is perfect. Cassel will be exposed next year with a real schedule. Fans failing to see that Cassels numbers were purely schedule driven is funny to me. Look how he did when it counted against Oakland and Baltimore. I would be happy with 0-16 if it meant getting Luck. I want the Chiefs to be great long term, not just okay and reach the playoffs every other year when they get an easy schedule. Cassel will never be great. Dont see why it's terrible for a fan to want a great QB. KC hasnt had one since Dawson. Anyone know when KC last won a SB?
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Mon May 30, 2011 5:26 pm

The Chiefs need 2 1st rnd WRs to cover up an average QB. Great QBs turn nobodies into household names.
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Mon May 30, 2011 5:32 pm

I have a hard time believing Moss wasn't a good receiver without Brady. Fitz and Boldin without Warner. Manning Harrison, wayne. Rice always had a real QB. The list goes on. Marino and Brady are the few who were great with nobody's. Also all NFL schedules are hard.
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Mon May 30, 2011 6:32 pm

Brady didnt win any of his SB's with Moss. Indy considered getting rid of Wayne early in his career. Nobody heard of Garcon, Collie or White. Brees has made a 6th rnd pick a star. Rogers has Jennings.
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Mon May 30, 2011 6:37 pm

[quote="Chiefs09"]
Ian316 wrote:
Yeah exactly look at what he had around hinm as receivers. Bowe and..........nothing....yet 3000 plus and a great TD to int ratio. Cassel has a lot better chance to keep this team in check then anybody we bring in this year or Stanzi. To want him to tear his ACL is to want this team to go 0-16.....way to be a good fan.....[/


I am a realist and dont believe every single thing the Chiefs do is perfect. Cassel will be exposed next year with a real schedule. Fans failing to see that Cassels numbers were purely schedule driven is funny to me. Look how he did when it counted against Oakland and Baltimore. I would be happy with 0-16 if it meant getting Luck. I want the Chiefs to be great long term, not just okay and reach the playoffs every other year when they get an easy schedule. Cassel will never be great. Dont see why it's terrible for a fan to want a great QB. KC hasnt had one since Dawson. Anyone know when KC last won a SB?

KC has had a Great QB since Dawson. Joe Montana and Trent Green. It still wasnt enough. This team is built to win a Championship now. I dont see many flaws there. I'm one of the only ones on here who called Cassell getting better last year, and i'm going to do it again. I think Cassell breaks out this year and makes this conversation non existant. I have a hard time believing your a true Chiefs fan wishing someone to get hurt seriously. We dont have to go 0-16 to get Luck. If the Brass what him all they have to do is trade for him. It doesn't make any difference because Cassell is not going anywhere. This team has 3 legit WRs now, a stellar run game, a defense that can win. I look for good things to happen if this draft can contribute similiar to the draft in 2010.
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Mon May 30, 2011 7:02 pm

Whether or not you believe me or not does not concern me. I have a closet full of authentic jerseys going all the way back to the piece of crap Vannover. With players going to different teams these days it makes sense that a person might not like every player on their favorite team. My favorite team happens to have 2 players I absolutely hate with a passion ( Jackson and Cassel). KC also happens to have 4 of my top 5 favorite players in the league ( Charles, Flowers, Hali, and Berry). Hali being the one jersey I still dont have. I am also a huge Royals fan but do believe they have the worst owner in all of sports ... and it's not even close.

The Chiefs are building a D that can win and will get better next year. They will still be weak at DE. They also have a lot of the pieces on offense. QB and a second RB will be the only glaring weakness. Maybe not RB once FA begins. KC will never win a SB with Cassel at QB. Good thing is we will have solid pieces when Pioli finally recognizes that.

Montana was well past his great years by the time he got here. Trent wont be going to the hall. Great QB's go to the hall.
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Mon May 30, 2011 8:11 pm

Most of those guys started off with a receiver. Cassel hasn't. No matter what you say, all those players would have been better than anyone we had outside Bowe even if they never played with those QB's. 99% of the time great QB's have a great WR, and a great offensive mind on the coaching staff. They might not have that their whole career, but thats how they get started.

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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Mon May 30, 2011 8:21 pm

Also I would much rather the Chiefs trade the farm to get the #1 pick vs going 0-16... and I don't want them to do that either. Sure I'd love Luck, but it's not happening, and I wouldn't tank the season for him either. Knowing our luck we would do that and he would be a bust.

Cassel isn't the same QB he was when we got him. Hes gotten better and will continue to do so because hes still pretty new to being a starting QB. His job just got a lot easier with Zorn and Baldwin. Not to mention our running game and the defense we are building the team around. Moeaki will become a more than solid and probably even our most reliable target. Bowe is coming together finally and will just get better not being the only target anymore. The biggest question mark is McCluster and/or someone else stepping up in the slot.

If he does a good job of not turning the ball over just like he did last year, we aren't losing many games. His line just keeps getting better for him too.

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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Mon May 30, 2011 8:24 pm

Brady, Manning, Brees, Rogers, and even Big Ben who I usually dont think of as great could lose there #1 and still win big. And behind their #1 targets is a bunch of no names. If Cassel were to lose Bowe we'd be lucky to win 3 against any schedule.
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Mon May 30, 2011 8:35 pm

Yeah now that they are established. How bad were all those QB's their first years even with great receivers? I already said Brady was one of the exceptions so I'm not sure why you keep mentioning him. Big Ben is the worst of that group, but his team had the best results because he had the best defense, running game, and receivers like Ward, and Burress.

You are trying to compare a QB who has started for a few years to guys who have started 5-10 years? Get a clue dude.

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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Mon May 30, 2011 10:01 pm

You never said Brady was an exceptioon for one. Rogers and Brees didnt have great WR either. And you are saying Cassel is great after 1 good season with the easiest schedule in the league. You need to get a clue and take off the red glasss or at least acknowledge you only see it from a fans standpoint. Because in reality until Cassel does it against real competition he really hasnt proven anything. The only thing he has shown so far is that he is terrible when it matters most. (Oakland and Baltimore).
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Mon May 30, 2011 10:11 pm

If Manning, Brady or Brees fall to the Chiefs in the 2012 NFL draft, I'm all for the selection. Unfortunately guys like them don't grow on trees. And to root for the Chiefs to go 0-16 is Un-American.
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Tue May 31, 2011 12:13 am

Chiefs09 wrote:
Whether or not you believe me or not does not concern me. I have a closet full of authentic jerseys going all the way back to the piece of crap Vannover. With players going to different teams these days it makes sense that a person might not like every player on their favorite team. My favorite team happens to have 2 players I absolutely hate with a passion ( Jackson and Cassel). KC also happens to have 4 of my top 5 favorite players in the league ( Charles, Flowers, Hali, and Berry). Hali being the one jersey I still dont have. I am also a huge Royals fan but do believe they have the worst owner in all of sports ... and it's not even close.

The Chiefs are building a D that can win and will get better next year. They will still be weak at DE. They also have a lot of the pieces on offense. QB and a second RB will be the only glaring weakness. Maybe not RB once FA begins. KC will never win a SB with Cassel at QB. Good thing is we will have solid pieces when Pioli finally recognizes that.

Montana was well past his great years by the time he got here. Trent wont be going to the hall. Great QB's go to the hall.

They are not weak at DE. We have some really solid guys there at the position especially after Jackson comes out and blows it up this season. Montana my have been past his prime but he still took the Chiefs to the AFC Championship game. I personally think Trent has a shot at the hall. He owns alll the Chiefs records and led one of the most explosive offenses in NFL history.
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Tue May 31, 2011 12:45 am

I feel like I said if he does a good job of not turning the ball over we will win games, I never said he was a great QB. Pioli is building this team the smart way, because its just pure luck finding a great QB.

When Brees broke out his, what was it fourth year starting? He had Gates who was the best TE in football that year. McCardell who might not be "great" but he went to a few Pro Bowls. He had LT in his prime. Eric Parker wasn't bad and neither was Reche Caldwell until he got hurt. Oh and Vincent Jackson, but he didn't play much.

As for Rogers. He started off with Jennings and Driver, both good for 1,000 yards a piece and both more established than our receivers. They had a nice rebuilt OLine for him. Donald Lee, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson aren't bad targets either. Not to mention Grant was doing pretty well out of the backfield. Oh and they had a pretty easy schedule.

But hey keep painting Cassel as a bad QB with no chance of success. Even though every example you have thrown out so far went through similar phases on better teams.

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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Tue May 31, 2011 1:18 am

I'd say there's a pretty good chance that if the 49ers drafted Rodgers over Smith they are still in the same situation and then Smith is the one who goes on to be a great QB. Big Ben probably would have been pretty bad with most any other team. And Brees was playing so bad his first three years years they gave up and got Manning/Rivers. Cassel is in a good situation now. He's got some starting experience and is ready to blossom.
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Tue May 31, 2011 9:08 am

when did the Pack have an easy schedule?
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Tue May 31, 2011 9:15 am


When it comes time to grade performance for a given year — particularly the performance of individual players — the use of statistics can create some major complications in analysis. Statistics are excellent at showing us what has happened in a given timeframe.

For example, all of the following claims are true:

The Kansas City Chiefs won the AFC West division with a record of 10-6.
They accomplished this behind an offensive DVOA rating of 7.8%, and more specifically a pass offense rating of 21.5%, above the league average.
With just one wide receiver of note (plus a back who is a match-up nightmare), QB Matt Cassel threw 27 TDs, 7 interceptions, and lost just one fumble, accounting personally for most of the Chiefs offensive (and thusly, team) success.
Cassel was not the best player on the offense, with the season Jamaal Charles had, but with questionable contribution from Thomas Jones, Cassel was the difference between a below average offense in spite of Charles, and an above average offense featuring Charles.
These claims make it very clear: Matt Cassel was a very valuable player for the Kansas City Chiefs, probably the difference between them winning the division, and finishing third and out of the playoff race. That right there should be enough to assume that Matt Cassel was the difference in the Chiefs season and specifically, the improvement he made from 2009 to 2010 under the tutelage of Charlie Weis. More facts: Cassel went from a QB rating of 69.9 in 2009 to one of 93.0 in 2010 and from a DVOA of -23.3% to one of 15.2%. It’s hard to overstate that uptick in performance, and what it meant to the Chiefs franchise.

If only analysis were that simple. Cassel’s improvement across the board was easily measurable, but any of Cassel’s value above league average is likely tied up in simple touchdown to interception ratio. Throwing four times as many TDs as INTs qualifies as a great season, but also a lucky one. Why do I assert this? Because if quarterbacks were truly skilled in a way where they could manipulate their interceptions and touchdown passes to greatly outpace their other statistics, every passer would do so. But a quick PFR play index search of Cassel’s feat shows that Cassel’s feat of 3x INTs to TDs, while rare enough to put him among the list of some of the best ever, also puts into context how QB rating should love a season where such a feat was accomplished. Cassel is one of just four players to 1) throw fewer than 10 INTs in a season, 2) throw three times as many TDs as INTs, and 3) fail to score 100.0 or better in QB rating.

One of the three seasons that are lumped in with Cassel, Matt Ryan’s 2010, provides another important contextual argument. Cassel played one of the lightest schedules of pass defenses in the league, including Denver, Houston, Jacksonville, and the entire NFC West. Had he not been injured, he would have faced San Diego a second time, but avoided them. Ryan played a much harder schedule of defenses in relation to Cassel, accomplishing much of the same feats, but doing a little better than 10-5 on the season. Rich Gannon’s 2001 is pretty much the same story: easy pass defenses helped bolster TD-INT ratios. Gannon, at least, was less subjected to bad bounces of the ball because he completed passes at a rate 8% higher than Cassel did. Jeff George’s 97 was a fluke season. He struggled even more than Cassel did. This is best explained by what happened the subsequent year: Gannon won the NFL MVP award. George lost his job.

Because it’s such a rare feat, three times as many TDs as INTs is a strong indicator of future success. However, the players who failed afterward all showed the same flaws as Cassel has this season: struggles in big games, low completion percentage for the season, unsustainable fumble rates on sacks, and career numbers that are completely out of line with the ‘fluky’ season. Cassel’s 2010 pretty much falls in line with all of the above. Tom Brady (and if you raise the baseline from 9 INTs to 12, Peyton Manning as well) is the only quarterback to hit this ratio twice in his career. Gannon got close two other times. George never got remotely close again.

Cassel is treading in rare territory. These heights would have been really rare had Cassel not had a disaster game against the Raiders on Sunday, throwing 2 INTs in his own territory and taking 6 sacks while completing just a third of his passes. This, of course, is part of my greater point: Cassel’s game was not the worst of his career. He posted a 14.6 QB rating in a blowout loss to Denver at home last season, and was almost as bad at home vs. San Diego and against Buffalo the same year. Gannon, for example, did not have such a game in the two years preceding his 2001 season, nor in the three years to follow. All of which suggests that Cassel’s season is more an example of circumstance than of Cassel’s greatness. Even George never had a period of struggles like Cassel has had in Kansas City.

Without some other strong statistical indicators to back up his performance, Matt Cassel’s 27-7 TD-INT ratio ranks as the luckiest QB season of 2010. It is not the only one.

Mark Sanchez

Mark Sanchez has a mediocre 75.3 QB rating this year behind the strength of a low interception rate, in the
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Tue May 31, 2011 10:50 am

Please give some examples of QB's who were great on teams as bad as the one Cassel had to play with on the Chiefs his first year.

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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Tue May 31, 2011 4:38 pm

Cassel played the top 3 passing Ds
TD INT SK RTG
SD 1 0 1 68 in a big rainstorm so good job
OAK 2 1 2 82.6
OAK 0 2 5 19.1
BUF 1 0 3 84.1

and 7 of the 10 worst D's

Cardinals 115.5
49ers 111.7
Broncos 116
Broncos 84.9
Seahawks 129.3
Jags 144
Titans 128.8
Texans 122.9

then 1 playoff game where he threw 3 picks, was sacked 3 times and had a 20.4 rating

Cassel was fantastic against the worst teams in the league. I was at the Houston game and he did look very good. If not for a bullshit PI call on Flowers late we would have won. Was average a couple of times against the best and pathetic a couple times. Next year he wont be playing so many bad teams.
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Tue May 31, 2011 6:39 pm

I can live with ratings in the 80's against two of the top three teams or whatever. Especially when one of those teams was the same one where he did horrible. I don't think you are grasping the concept of how hard it is to play the QB position when you only have one receiving threat. Especially when your one guy has had a big case of the butterfingers.

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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Tue May 31, 2011 6:40 pm

Dude every stat you have given has just shown how much he improved. Then you point out three games where he did bad....now go to his first season here and he did bad against everybody....So he did good against the teams we should beat and he struggled against a very underrated oakland team and a top five defense in Baltimore... Yeah man he definitely is terrible....NOT! No matter how you put the stats he just keeps improving. In his first season with New England as the guy he had a decent year. He went to a team...the chiefs...with nothing and had a bad year...but we are still building and the more we build the better he gets...I just don't get how you can say Andrew Luck is a better option right now on a team wanting to win now, not start over at quarterback when it isn't neccesary.
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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Tue May 31, 2011 6:51 pm

As for the Ravens game. We were in that for the first half. They keyed in on two guys. They completely took away Bowe, and everytime Charles touched the ball they hit him as hard as the possibly could. The defense was on the field too long because we had no other receiving threat, and our young safeties couldn't stop Heap. Granted its a little harder when your best safety and your CB's are a little occupied trying to stop the likes of Mason, Boldin, and Housh... a long with Berry being a big part of our rush defense and trying to stop Rice and McClain too.

They completely took away Bowe and hurt Charles, there was no where else for Cassel to go. That could change this year, I'm hoping Baldwin can be that 1,000 yard receiver his rookie year, but that might be too much for a rookie. Even if it isn't him, we have two other guys in Moeaki and/or McCluster that are hopefully ready to step up this year.

If a second option doesn't step up then I agree Cassel will most likely be exposed. But if he gets another receiving threat to step up this year he might not play very different. He has a better QB coach now, but at the same time I could see Haley opening up the offense more and him turning the ball over more. If that does happen our young defense should be better anyways and he will be able to get away with it a little more too.

Cassel wont be counted on to win us many games so I'm not too worried. I think hes good enough to not lose games for us though.

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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Tue May 31, 2011 6:57 pm

and I agree with Ian, he is improving. He will continue to improve too. He is still new to starting. Some QB's take 5+ years to reach their potential. It sucks that Cassel wasn't a rookie when he started playing, but we've gone too far now to start over. He has the talent, and all the mental/leadership qualities. All he needs is coaching, repetition, and more on the field experience.

He will continue to get better. If you think hes worse or the same as he was when we first got him, then.. well there is just something wrong with you.

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PostSubject: Re: Five Bold Predictions   Tue May 31, 2011 7:32 pm

Well said Rusty! Look I know we have a tough schedule, and I am worried we will have a hard time, but it's not Cassel I am completely worried about it's the whole team. I think we really have a team who can compete with the big boys and I think you could be eating your words Chief09. The Chiefs were not expected to even compete in the division last year by non chiefs fans and we won it. The same things were said last year about Cassel and all he did was go out and play, and he played well no matter how you put it.
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