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 Gretz: Stuck on Value

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PostSubject: Gretz: Stuck on Value    Thu May 05, 2011 9:02 pm

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Stuck On Value … Thursday Cup O’Chiefs
May 4, 2011 - Bob Gretz

It’s a relatively recent phenomenon in the days after NFL Drafts to judge the value of a team’s draft choices.

There’s nothing that pundits, critics, draftniks and even fellow personnel types like to do more than debate the quality of a team’s selections. The conversation always centers on how the drafted players were lined up before the draft and how they went off the board during the seven rounds. Did a team reach to draft a player who was rated significantly lower because they were trying to fill a need? How much did a player fall in the run up to the draft, whether it was a positive drug test or second thoughts by the evaluators?

For instance, there are a host of “draft experts” who say the Chiefs reached for first-round draft choice Jonathan Baldwin, that he wasn’t a talent rated in the first round. There’s the belief that they got lucky when with third-round choice Justin Houston (left), who dropped from the first round to the third.

So called reaches and value picks are in the eye of the beholder. There can be a significant difference of opinion on a player evaluation, one that when placed on a grid, could mean the difference of three or four rounds.

In the last few days I’ve been on the phone with folks around the league who prepared for this draft and know all the bodies big and small, draftable and free agents. I wasn’t looking for anybody to grade the Chiefs ’11 Draft. Rather, I wanted to know where other sources rated the players selected by the red and gold.

NFL teams all have subtle differences in the methods they use to grade players. But at one point or another, they tend to put them in some sort of order, whether one through 250 or on levels based on the round. For instance, they’ll rate players as potential first-round choices as 1+, 1 or 1-. The chances are good they won’t have 32 players listed as first-round picks. From there, they do the same thing in rounds two through seven.

My sources with three NFL teams were willing to share this basic information with me. I added to that a public source that is respected around the league, Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News. Believe me when I tell you that nobody has more phone numbers into NFL draft decision makers than Goose. Every year, a few days before the draft, he releases his top 100 rated players. I can tell you there are teams that check it out to make sure they haven’t somehow undervalued somebody.

OK, so here are the pre-draft ratings of three teams and Goose of the players selected by the Chiefs.
Players

(SEE CHART ATTACHED BELOW)


Let’s look at each draft choice individually:

Baldwin – Did the Chiefs reach for the WR out of Pittsburgh? The ratings given Baldwin across the board from these teams and Gosselin would say no. In fact, it’s not even close. The Chiefs along with each of the three teams and Goose had Baldwin rated the No. 3 receiver in this year’s class, behind only A.J. Green and Julio Jones.

I don’t know that the NFL has a definition of reach, but I’m willing to say it would be taking a player a good round-and-a-half higher than their overall rating. That would be 48 spots. If they reached for Baldwin, the Chiefs never had to get out of their draft room chairs.

Hudson – There were mixed opinions among NFL teams on the Florida State C/G largely because of his size; he played at a relatively small 285 pounds for the Seminoles. The Chiefs grabbed him at No. 55, and the other three teams and Goose rated him on average at No. 56.

Just about every team in the league viewed him as a mid-second round choice and the No. 2 center in this draft. He was taken as the No. 3 center, after the Raiders grabbed Stefan Wisniewski out of Penn State with the pick No. 48, seven spots ahead of the Hudson.

Houston – The Georgia product fell as far as just about anyone at the top of the NFL Draft, dropping anywhere from 40 to 50 slots. That the Chiefs got him with the 70th pick qualifies as value, or rather gambling value. If Houston has a problem staying available because he can’t pass drug tests or he doesn’t mature, or take his opportunity seriously.

This pick is probably the only time in the Draft that Chiefs got off the route where they had these players rated. At No. 70, he was simply too good a prospect to pass up.

Bailey – The defensive lineman from Miami has gotten a lot of attention from pundits as a reach by the Chiefs. But check out his ratings from the other teams and Goose. He averaged to the 76th-rated player. He was taken with the 86th pick, so that’s hardly a reach.

Brown – Another player that various pundits and fans believe was a reach for the Chiefs, taken at No. 118. But everyone else had him rated in their top 100 players, and he averaged out to No. 87. He may not have gotten a lot of attention from the media and fans around the league, but it’s obvious the teams evaluated him as a third or fourth-round player.

Stanzi – Was viewed by the other teams and Gosselin as on average the 83rd best player in this year’s draft, or a solid third-round selection. But he didn’t go until the Chiefs grabbed him in the fifth-round. That’s a pretty good value.

Miller – No team had this conversion tight end-to defensive end-to linebacker rated among their top 100 players. That likely included the Chiefs as well. Whether he could have been selected in the sixth or seventh round, or signed as an undrafted free agent is mere speculation now. But obviously, the Chiefs had him rated higher. So was Miller a reach? At that point of the draft, it looks that way.

Powe – There was a wide range of opinion on the big man from Mississippi. One team viewed him as an early third-round talent, while another had him pegged for the fifth round or later. The Chiefs got him late so score him as a value pick for Pioli.

Bannon – Very few teams had him on their draft boards, let alone rated highly. But there were enough teams behind the Chiefs in the drafting order who had worked out the Yale fullback. So rather than wait for post draft free agency, Pioli used his least valuable pick. No big gamble or reach there.

As you can see, based on the way these three teams judged players, the only big gambles that Pioli took was throwing a couple of picks the way of players with some character questions with Houston and Powe, and using two of his three late choices on players that weren’t rated very high.

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PostSubject: Re: Gretz: Stuck on Value    Sat May 07, 2011 11:46 pm

Anything less than the same record is a disappointment. If we had the same schedule I would expect at least 3 more wins, we actually could of had those last year as it was.
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PostSubject: Re: Gretz: Stuck on Value    Sun May 08, 2011 4:01 am

Yeah the Chiefs were one play away from winning a few more games. Then NFL turns over a lot besides the few obvious few good teams in the playoffs every year.. they could easily be there again this year, especially playing in the AFC West.

There is no possible way we "lose 12 games and still are a better team"

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PostSubject: Re: Gretz: Stuck on Value    Sun May 08, 2011 4:15 pm

Week 01 Buffalo Bills
Sun, 09/11 at 12:00 PM CDT
Home: Arrowhead Stadium

Week 02 @ Detroit Lions
Sun, 09/18 at 12:00 PM CDT
Away: Ford Field

Week 03 @ San Diego Chargers
Sun, 09/25 at 3:05 PM CDT
Away: Qualcomm Stadium

Week 04 Minnesota Vikings
Sun, 10/02 at 12:00 PM CDT
Home: Arrowhead Stadium

Week 05 @ Indianapolis Colts
Sun, 10/09 at 12:00 PM CDT
Away: Lucas Oil Stadium

Week 06ByeWeek 07 @ Oakland Raiders
Sun, 10/23 at 3:05 PM CDT
Away: Oakland Coliseum

Week 08 San Diego Chargers
Mon, 10/31 at 7:30 PM CDT
Home: Arrowhead Stadium

Week 09 Miami Dolphins
Sun, 11/06 at 12:00 PM CST
Home: Arrowhead Stadium

Week 10 Denver Broncos
Sun, 11/13 at 12:00 PM CST
Home: Arrowhead Stadium

Week 11 @ New England Patriots
Mon, 11/21 at 7:30 PM CST
Away: Gillette Stadium

Week 12 Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun, 11/27 at 7:20 PM CST
Home: Arrowhead Stadium

Week 13 @ Chicago Bears
Sun, 12/04 at 12:00 PM CST
Away: Soldier Field

Week 14 @ New York Jets
Sun, 12/11 at 12:00 PM CST
Away: New Meadowlands Stadium

Week 15 Green Bay Packers
Sun, 12/18 at 12:00 PM CST
Home: Arrowhead Stadium

Week 16 Oakland Raiders
Sat, 12/24 at 12:00 PM CST
Home: Arrowhead Stadium

Week 17 @ Denver Broncos
Sun, 01/01 at 3:15 PM CST
Away: Invesco Field at Mile High
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PostSubject: Re: Gretz: Stuck on Value    Sun May 08, 2011 4:19 pm

Chargers, Colts, Vikings, Miami, Jets, Patroits, Packers, will give the Chiefs fits. A team like Detroit i have a feeling will give KC all they want with that D Line. I think we will win some of these games, I just dont know how many. Alot of it is gonna depend how much they get out of the 2011 rookie class this year.
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PostSubject: Re: Gretz: Stuck on Value    Sun May 08, 2011 10:46 pm

We will split with the Chargers, and not saying we win all these.. but can easily beat Minnesota, Indy, and Miami.

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PostSubject: Re: Gretz: Stuck on Value    Sun May 08, 2011 10:59 pm

Steelers should be on that list, miami and minnesota not so much
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PostSubject: Re: Gretz: Stuck on Value    Sun May 08, 2011 11:03 pm

Seriously? You think we have a better chance of beating the Steelers than the Dolphins and Vikings?

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PostSubject: Re: Gretz: Stuck on Value    Mon May 09, 2011 8:25 am

BigRatt wrote:
Chargers, Colts, Vikings, Miami, Jets, Patroits, Packers, will give the Chiefs fits. A team like Detroit i have a feeling will give KC all they want with that D Line. I think we will win some of these games, I just dont know how many. Alot of it is gonna depend how much they get out of the 2011 rookie class this year.


Read carefully Rusty. This isn't a list of easy wins.

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PostSubject: Re: Gretz: Stuck on Value    Mon May 09, 2011 9:27 am

None of the division games will be easy. we went 2-4 in a bad division last year. 3 of the 4 losses were by 20+ points. our 2 wins were by 7 or less. we played 2 playoff teams (1 being the 7-9 seahawks) based on where they were slotted we played 6 of the first 8 in the draft. next year we play the last 5. Why is it so hard to understand our record was 100% schedule driven? Even with that easy schedule Cassel only reached 250 yds passing in 2 of 15 starts. (1 of the games was against a prevent D after the 1st quarter). 7 of those less than 200.
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PostSubject: Re: Gretz: Stuck on Value    Mon May 09, 2011 12:59 pm

FatThucker wrote:
BigRatt wrote:
Chargers, Colts, Vikings, Miami, Jets, Patroits, Packers, will give the Chiefs fits. A team like Detroit i have a feeling will give KC all they want with that D Line. I think we will win some of these games, I just dont know how many. Alot of it is gonna depend how much they get out of the 2011 rookie class this year.


Read carefully Rusty. This isn't a list of easy wins.


My bad player, I thought you were talking about mine right after that.

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PostSubject: Re: Gretz: Stuck on Value    Mon May 09, 2011 1:01 pm

You realize there is about a 50% turnover rate in the playoffs about every year right? So our schedule looking hard at first in no way means it was hard when the season gets over.

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PostSubject: Re: Gretz: Stuck on Value    Mon May 09, 2011 1:22 pm

So between the Pats, Steelers, Colts, Packers, Jets and Bears which 3 are gonna suck? There is zero doubt when the season is over KC will have had one of the toughest schedules in the league. That is if we have a season. I'm curious if the owners actually have the nuts to go out of business.
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